The barrier stats and speedmap suggest punters should give a Nick Olive-trained gelding another chance at the Canberra meeting on Friday to be run on the Acton surface.
Fire Stoker has been a costly conveyance for punters this preparation being defeated as a short-priced favourite on both occasions.
Fire Stoker has shown promise in his limited career to date winning impressively on debut before starting an $8.50 chance in the Inglis Classic at Randwick at his only other run in his first preparation when he led and weakened badly over 1200m.
Whilst it didn't help punter's pockets as a $1.80 favourite Fire Stoker did a good job resuming at Gundagai two runs back carrying 60.5kg and starting from a double-figure barrier before finishing fourth just over two-lengths from the winner in a Wagga class one last time out when the gelding struck a heavy (9) track.
Although we are looking at limited data horses that led at their latest outing on the Canberra Acton track have a 31 percent winning strike rate but this statistic increases substantially when the races are filtered to reflect leaders jumping from barriers 1 to 3 with the winning strike rate now 44 percent and a profit on turnover of 41 percent.
Adding a further filter of top three in the betting the winning strike rate becomes 66 percent with a 100 percent profit on turnover.
With the limited number of meetings held on the Acton circuit it would be folly suggesting these figures will hold up but it still shows a distinct bias over the 1080m to horses in inside gates, that can race on the speed and the betting markets expect them to perform.
Fire Stoker will launch from barrier 3, looks set find the front comfortably and is one of only three horses under double-figure odd in Capital Crown Leasing Benchmark 55 Handicap (1080m).
With the speedmap and stats in his favours punters would be wise to five Fire Stoker one more chance.
