It’s been a case of chipping away for the start of the spring carnival but as we get into full swing on Golden Rose day - it’s time to ramp it up.
BRIGHT IDEA (Rosehill Race 1 No 7)
This three-year-old Smart Missile filly should get all the on pace favours in the opening event – and I’m expecting she’ll give a great sight at big odds. No luck on debut at Newcastle when blocked for a run in the straight. That race has already proven to be a reliable form reference. Stepped out at Hawkesbury at her second start and towelled rivals, careering away for a five lengths victory. Maps to camp outside the leader in a small field with minimal pressure, so with any further improvement appears big overs.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $16 @ Sportsbet (PowerPlay $20)
DON’T GIVE A DAMN (Rosehill Race 3 No 2)
Astute trainer Danny Williams almost caused a boilover when his four-year-old son of Bon Hoffa came within a nose of knocking off Suncraze around the 1200m here last time. It’s worth noting that it was only the second start for Don’t Give A Damn so he’ll improve plenty off that. Jumps from 1200m to 1500m but he was kicking back right on the line against Suncraze and I’ll back the trainer to know what he’s doing. A soft gate and Kerrin McEvoy riding are two massive positives. When taking short odds we need a good thing – and this looks just that.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.35 @ Crownbet
UP ‘N’ ROLLING (Rosehill Race 4 No 3)
The second ‘good thing’ of the day. Again McEvoy rides off a perfect gate and this up and coming stayer should simply have too much on his rivals. This former Kiwi is two from two this preparation on good tracks and he’s been dominant. Relaxes well so can make use of the inside gate. Has a turn of foot at the business end which is why he’s building such an imposing record and I just can’t see anything else in this field that will be able to seriously challenge. Once again we are diving into short odds – so he needs to be a winner.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.05 @ Bet365
BADGE OF GAMENESS (Rosehill Race 6 No 10)
The Gloaming Stakes is always fraught with danger when backing those at the top end of the market. They appear well weighted under the set weights scale but this race isn’t about weight – it’s about staying. Early season three-year-olds tested at 1800m. I don’t mind taking a gamble on these races and Badge Of Gameness is certainly a gamble – he’s currently $41. He savaged the line around the mile at Gosford last time at only his fourth career outing, so I am convinced he will get the distance. Trainer John Thompson can produce a decent stayer and this campaign suggests that this horse has a much better chance of winning than the market’s current 2.5 percent figure. I’m having a crack.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $41 @ Bet365
IMPAVIDO (Rosehill Race 9 No 10)
Willing to take another gamble here on a horse I’ve got a bit of time for - Impavido. Came from a mile back and blew rivals away when debuted over this distance last campaign. Progressed so quickly for Bjorn Baker that he gave him a crack at the Group I Randwick Guineas – and he finished an unlucky fourth. Failed in the Rosehill Guineas and Australian Derby subsequently but that was on heavy going behind some top class stayers. His two trials leading into this campaign have been exceptional. The 1400m around here might be a touch too short, but he’s got more upside than these, has drawn well and at the double-figures is capable of causing an upset.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $13 @ Bet365
