The 2021 Melbourne Cup has a red hot favourite in Incentivise, who is riding a nine race winning streak into this year’s Cup with Group I wins at his last three starts up to 2400m, but can he get 3200m? His pedigree does raise some serious questions, but also valid reason for optimism.
Incentivise is one of four Australian bred runners with New Zealand accounting for seven runners and the remainder all bred in the Northern Hemisphere with two of those Twilight Payment (IRE) and Spanish Mission (USA) also trained overseas.
For runners with proven form at 3000m plus, the pedigree point is moot as whatever genetics might be theorized from the pedigree page, have already been demonstrated in the horse, but for those untried at the trip we’ll have a look to see what might unfold in the last furlong on Tuesday and see what contenders may challenge the favourite.
1/ Twilight Payment (IRE) (9g Teofilo (IRE) x Dream on Buddie, by Oasis Dream) – He’s an accomplished long distance stayer that won the race last year and can easily win it again with good recent form and a good barrier .
2/ Incentivise (5g Shamus Award x Miss Argyle, by Iglesia) – Bolted in with Caulfield Cup and if he can reproduce that form will win.
By Cox Plate winner Shamus Award, who has proven a very effective source of 2400m horses so that’s encouraging, but his first three dams were all speedy sprinting types. His dam Miss Argyle was placed in a Gimcrack Stakes and is by a slick sprinter in Iglesia, best known as the sire of champion sire Written Tycoon.
As fast as Iglesia was (he clocked 1:07.16 in winning the Standish Handicap up the Flemington straight in 2001), he had a half-brother by Interstellar called Yippyio, who was a great favourite with punters and won multiple staying races including a Brisbane Cup at 3200m.
Yippyio finished second in the 2000 Melbourne Cup won by Brew, so if Incentivise can channel just a little bit of his stamina he’ll be fighting hard all the way up that Flemington straight.
3/ Spanish Mission (USA) (6h Noble Mission x Limonar, by Street Cry) - Proven long distance stayer with multiple wins at 3200m and beyond and was third in the G1 Ascot Gold Cup at 4000m this year.
Foaled in North America, but has a European pedigree being by a full brother to Frankel from a French stakes-winner at 1600m by Street Cry, well known as the sire of world champion Winx and Melbourne Cup winner Shocking. His female family has also produced this year’s Irish St Leger winner Sonnyboyliston, who would have been one of the favourites for the Cup this year if connections had chosen to bring him out.
4/Verry Elleegant (NZ) (6m Zed x Opulence, by Danroad) – Australian Horse of the Year with nine Group I wins on her resume and not harshly treated with 57kg, which is WFA.
She runs 2400m strongly and was a good seventh in the Cup last year after getting too far back and is certainly stronger and more seasoned this time around with her regular partner James McDonald to ride. Pedigree won’t be what stops her winning.
5/ Explosive Jack (NZ) (4h Jakkalberry (IRE) x Extra Explosive, by Ekraar (USA) – Won three Derbies last season so can certainly stay, although form this spring nothing to excite, unlike his jockey John Allen, who has done nothing but excite!
His sire Jakkalberry was third to Green Moon and Fiorente in the 2012 Melbourne Cup so maybe Jack will be explosive at 3200m!
6/ The Chosen One (NZ) (6h Savabeel x The Glitzy One, by Flying Spur) – Third try at the Melbourne Cup finishing fourth last year and 17th the year before.
He runs two miles, but probably not fast enough to win.
7/ Delphi (IRE) (5h Galileo x Bye Bye Birdie, by Oasis Dream) – Terrific in Herbert Power and then terrible in Caulfield Cup when led from bad barrier, but has a better gate here and back on good ground which he seems to prefer and has won up to 2800m.
Bred on very similar lines to last year’s winner Twilight Payment, who is by a son of Delphi’s sire Galileo in Teofilo from a mare by the same sire in Oasis Dream.
8/ Ocean Billy (NZ) (6g Ocean Park x Cool Storm, by One Cool Cat (USA) – Easy winner of the G1 Auckland Cup in NZ over 3200m and was midfield in Caulfield Cup.
By Cox Plate winner Ocean Park and seems the typical tough Kiwi stayer.
9/ Selino (GB) (6g Champs Elysee x Air Kiss, by Red Ransom) – Won the G1 Sydney Cup earlier in the year over 3200m and has been quietly plugging along this spring.
Has won over two miles, but is bred to run three with a European female family packed with long distance stayers.
10/ Johnny Get Angry (NZ) (4g Tavistock x Luminova, by Zabeel) – Won Victoria Derby last year and done nothing since.
Has plenty of staying blood and his family features Markham, who was third in a Melbourne Cup, so pedigree is not what is slowing him down.
11/ Knight’s Order (IRE) (7g So You Think x Lamanka Lass, by Woodman) – Won this year’s G2 Brisbane Cup at 3200m and backs up from seventh in the G3 Hotham on Saturday dropping 5.5kg.
Irish bred son of champion racehorse So You Think, who was gallant third in a Melbourne Cup and comes from female family of Melbourne Cup winner At Talaq.
12/ Persan (5g Pierro x Ofcoursiecan, by Mossman) – Ran out of his skin last year to run a fantastic fifth in the Cup and is a stronger horse in even better form this year with a last start third in Caulfield Cup.
He might have been a Golden Slipper winner, but Pierro has been remarkably successful as a source of classic horses and has a serious Cup contender in Persan.
13/ Carif (6g So You Think x Norzita, by Thorn Park) - Won G3 Sandown Cup over 3200m last year and second in Brisbane Cup over same trip this year.
Second runner in the race for So You Think and his dam Norzita was the Champion 3YO filly of her generation. Read more about his connection to the late Dato Tan Chin Nam and his famous colours.
14/ Master of Wine (Ger) (7g Maxios x Magma, by Dubai Destination) – Group and Listed winner in Australia up to 2400m, but has never attempted 3200m and seemed to be going better last year.
He is by a G1 winning son of champion staying sire Monsun, that has left three Melbourne Cup winners in Protectionist, Almandin and Fiorente, so could easily find another gear when required, but will it be fast enough?
15/ Pondus (GB) (6g Sea the Moon x Diablerette, by Green Desert ) – Second in G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington over 2600m last year when trained by Joseph O’Brien, then went back to Ireland and found good form before coming back again and now with Robert Hickmott. Not tried at 3200m.
His sire won the German Derby and is by outstanding staying sire Sea the Stars from a daughter of Monsun, so not hard to see Pondus as a two miler on paper.
16/ Grand Promenade (GB) (6g Champs Elysees x Zacchera, by Zamindar) – Won G3 Bart Cummings over 2520m to earn his slot and was second in Andrew Ramsden also at Flemington over 2800m, but has never attempted further.
Second runner in the race for his sire Champs Elysees and has a big Black Type pedigree with a mix of speed and stamina, so am optimistic he might thoroughly enjoy this trip!
17/ Miami Bound (NZ) (5m Reliable Man (GB) x Arapaho Miss, by Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Won the VRC Oaks two years ago and has run in three 3200m races since then finishing 14th Melbourne Cup last year and seventh Sandown Cup to Carif and third in Sydney Cup to Selino this year.
She’s competent at the trip, but hard to envisage winning.
18/ Port Guillame (IRE) (5g Le Havre x Keira, by Turtle Bowl) – Lightly raced and did win a G2 over 2500m at Deauville in France last year, but spring form in Australia has been average and untried at 3200m.
By a sire that gets plenty of stayers in Le Havre and has Black Type family featuring many middle distance type stayers, so pedigree not going to hinder.
19/ She’s Ideel (6m Dundeel x Ana’s Mail, by Anabaa (USA) – G3 winner up to 2000m, but has run some great races over further finishing second in G2 Tancred at 2400m and fourth in the Sydney Cup at 3200m.
Her sire Dundeel was the Champion 3YO Colt and is by outstanding staying sire High Chaparral and dam comes from a family that produced G1 Brisbane Cup winner Danestorm at 3200m.
20/ Future Score (IRE) (7g Cape Cross x Theola, by Kalanisi) – Won Listed Cranbourne Cup over 2000m last year and has also won up to 2600m, but yet to try 3200m.
Dam was a four time winner at distances of 3200m and further, so he’ll probably run the trip, but class is lacking.
21/ Tralee Rose (NZ) (5m Tavistock x Star of Tralee by Zabeel) – Last start strong winner of G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) and has had one go at 3200m finishing a troubled fourth in G2 Adelaide Cup when she pulled up with poor respiratory and cardiac recovery, so can hardly judge her on that.
By champion staying sire Tavistock and dam is a half-sister by Zabeel to dual Oaks queen Serenade Rose from European female family packed with stayers barring one fruit out of season in $5million earning sprinter Trekking. Read more about her connection with Sir Patrick Hogan here.
22/ Floating Artist (GB) (6g Nathaniel x Miss Kenton, by Pivotal) – Winner in UK over 2400m and did most of his racing there over that trip and further, but since coming to Australia has kept to shorter races performing well until stepping up to G2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m and only just missing. Not tried at 3200m.
By Galileo’s G1 winning staying son Nathaniel, best known as sire of champion mare Enable, and dam is a half-sister to the dam of Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter. Pedigree suggests Floating Artist might find two miles is exactly what he’s looking for!
23/ Great House (IRE) (5g Galileo x Anja, by Indian Ridge) - Had two starts in Ireland as a 4YO in 2020 for a win and a second and was sold through Tattersalls Horses in Training Sale for 175,000 guineas to Highclere Racing and sent to Australia. (Read more about his story here) .He’s been racing constantly this year for the Waller stable and worked through his grades improving and progressing to a last start win on Saturday in G3 Hotham over 2500m. Yet to try a longer trip, but trainer is a genius and all this ground work over the past 12 months has not been for nothing.
By the late Galileo, one of the best stallions the world has ever seen and has a Black Type packed female family that will make true pedigree buffs get excited as he is line bred to influential matriarch Allegretta, who is the grand-dam of his sire Galileo and his dam Anja.
24/ Sir Lucan (IRE) (4h Camelot x Sparrow, by Oasis Dream)- Won a Listed race in Ireland over 2600m earlier in the year and has not raced yet in Australia for new trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott with his last run an eighth in the G1 St Leger behind Hurricane Lane.
By great staying sire Camelot and is a full brother to last year’s ill-fated Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet, who was sixth in Melbourne Cup last year.
Selections
1/ Incentivise
2/ Great House
3/ Tralee Rose
4/Verry Elleegant
Roughies
Persan and Delphi
