An old favourite, a talented prospect and a serial underachiever make up my best punting opportunities at Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting.
HIGH MIST (Warwick Farm Race 5 No 1)
Chancing the arm because I can’t believe the price. I admit, he’s tough to catch but gee he looks well placed on Wednesday. He wasn’t as bad as it reads first-up and the rider was kind on him in the straight. Look at his form last prep – He was good first-up with a big weight against the older horses then in Saturday grade he performed well against the smart and progressive gallopers Just Dreaming and Insensata. Another factor I think he’ll appreciate in this is it should be a genuinely run race after being a victim of steady tempos on a few occasions. The other point I want to touch on is he’s zero from seven on good tracks but if you analyse those runs, they’ve been first-up or at the end of campaigns, like the spring last year when he was running in races at a mile and beyond and I doubt he stays. He’s good enough to touch these up – we just need him to bring his A-game.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $10 @ Luxbet
BEACON (Warwick Farm Race 6 No 10)
The form around this guy reads well for this. They held him back from a stronger race and it looks to have fallen into place for him, drawing ideally in barrier three and Hugh Bowman can ride this time. On debut he beat Faeger and that horse has since finished close up behind the talented Songlike and subsequent Group II winner Showtime. He then finished a close second behind the speedy Cudabeen, beating Princess Posh and she has won since, finished sixth in the Tibbie and ran second to the handy Philosophy last week then at Beacon’s most recent run he thumped Workdrinks which ran well for second in a strong race two weeks ago. He’s better than a midweek grade horse and this is a stepping stone towards harder races for the rest of the preparation. Will be hard to beat.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.80 @ Bet365
DIXIE CHICK (Warwick Farm Race 8 No 4)
Forgive, sounds good. Forget, I'm not sure I could. They say time heals everything. But I'm still waiting – is the start of the Dixie Chicks biggest hit ‘Not ready to make nice’ and that’s how I felt when this David Pfieffer-trained mare was beaten first-up in a midweek grade race at Newcastle last prep. I’m a victim for her at the start of her campaign because she’s a great fresh horse and last time she fell afoul of the dreaded barrier two – never sighting daylight in the straight. Time for redemption – I’m happy to see she’s drawn out wide on Wednesday, hopefully that guarantees us a clear crack at them and her trials leading up to this have been as good as ever. She’s great odds.
BET: WIN or EACH-WAY
ODDS $7.50 @ Sportsbet ($8.30 Power Play)
