It almost appears too easy at Canterbury on Wednesday – I’ll be playing a treble on these three tips and if comes off it will be a fat day.
I AM SERIOUS (Canterbury Race 3 No 3)
This Chris Waller-trained four-year-old mare is destined for black type races so a Benchmark 78 midweek event should be a forgone conclusion. Unfortunately it never works out quite that easily – she has been rolled at two runs this campaign as a $2.60 and $2.20 favourite. Had excuses on each occasion – bumped into Group horse Perizada when resuming then found bother in the straight at Warwick Farm. Now gets out to 1550m in what should be a genuinely run affair. Well weighted on 55.5kg and has a soft gate for Blake Shinn. Today is her day – she should win – she needs to win.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.35 @Sportsbet ($2.65 PowerPlay)
BAYSA (Canterbury Race 6 No 9)
Another promising galloper from the Chris Waller yard which looks ideally placed. Beaten only 2-1/2 lengths behind Egg Tart in the Group I Queensland Oaks during the winter then resumed with a flashing light performance at Rosehill over 1500m when striking trouble at the start then again on the turn. Tackles the 1900m second-up off a soft gate with Brenton Avdulla in the saddle. Has the pace to settle handy to them and that should minimise the risk of bad luck – that looks the only way she will get beaten in this.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.90 @ ($3.25 PowerPlay)
SLOW BURN (Canterbury Race 7 No 10)
Surprised we are getting such generous odds about this highly promising mare. Toyed with rivals when resuming around 1200m here off the outside gate. Once again drawn out and admittedly there is more depth to this field, but I’m confident Tim Clark can utilise the early pace of Slow Burn to roll forward and make his own luck. His main dangers will then need the breaks to fall their way, and even if they get them I am no convinced they have the firepower to gun Slow Burn down.
BET: WIN
ODDS $3.80 @ ($4.40 PowerPlay) (FIXED ODDS TREBLE - $25.90)
