A leading European form expert believes Caulfield Cup favourite Johannes Vermeer is silly odds given he feels there are serious doubts about the Irish raider running a strong 2400m.
Sky Racing's Richard Wade points out the Aidan O'Brien galloper has only once run over 2400m and feels he was clearly outstayed by stablemate Spanish Steps in the Group III Ballyroan Stakes (1m4f - 2414m) in Ireland in August.
Johannes Vermeer is as short as $4 in some Caulfield Cup betting markets after tumbling into favouritism following the injury during the week to Japanese galloper Admire Deus.
Many punters were taken with Johannes Vermeer's fast-finishing second on his Australian debut in the Group I Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m) last Saturday.
But European expert Wade, who originally hails from Yorkshire, isn't so sure.
"I think 2400m would be the absolute maximum he wants, at his second last run he was basically just outstayed by Spanish Steps," Wade said.
"The change of tactics with Johannes Vermeer to be ridden more forward will probably suit him in the Caulfield Cup.
"He could win but I struggle to see it, I think he is more of a 2000m horse and others will be stronger at the finish of the Caulfield Cup.
"I certainly think he is too short in betting."
Wade also ran his eyes over overseas-trained Caulfield Cup hopes Marmelo ($17) and Wicklow Brave ($51).
And he has discounted them both in the $3m race on Saturday.
The Hughie Morrison-trained Marmelo won the Group II Prix Kergorlay (3000m) in August, a race which is traditionally a good Melbourne Cup guide.
Protectionist won the Prix Kergorlay before claiming the Melbourne Cup in 2014 while Americain defeated Manighar in the 2010 edition of the French feature before winning the Melbourne Cup two starts later.
However Wade wasn't taken by the Kergorlay this year.
"It was a bit of a farce of a race this year when Marmelo got to the front and absolutely walked," Wade said.
"He is certainly still improving but I just can't see him winning over this short (Caulfield Cup 2400m).
"I am sure he is much more of a Melbourne Cup horse."
As for Willie Mullins' Irish stayer Wicklow Brave trying to become the first nine-year-old to win the Caulfield Cup, Wade can't see it happening.
But he does think Wicklow Brave's form hasn't deteriorated since he ventured to Australia last year as one of the top handful of Melbourne Cup hopes.
Wicklow Brave, who reverted to hurdle racing for his last win in April, was beaten more than 24 lengths in last year's Melbourne Cup after getting a torrid run from the widest gate.
"To be honest Wicklow Brave's form coming here this year is just as good, if not slightly better in patches, than it was last year," Wade said.
"I just think the Caulfield Cup distance will be too short for him.
"One thing about these dual purpose horses though, is they are tough horses."
