The $1million Group I VRC Oaks (2500m) is the highlight at Flemington on Thursday and with all of the fillies on trial at the trip, pedigree can be a good indicator in a field of 14 that features five stakes-winners and a raft of up and comers.
1/ Tropical Squall (Prized Icon x Squalls, by Fusaichi Pegasus (USA) – Won the G1 Flight Stakes (1600m) and a good second at first Melbourne run in G3 Ethereal Stakes (2000m) off three week break.
Her father won the Victoria Derby and her dam sire Fusaichi Pegasus won the Kentucky Derby and while her female family is mostly about high class milers, class is going to carry Tropical Squall a long way in this assignment as she will race on the pace and be the filly to beat.
2/ Zardozi (Kingman x Chanderi, by Dubawi) – Won G2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) and then closing second in G2 Wakeful Stakes, so loves Flemington.
By an outstanding European sire in Kingman that can get a stayer and dam is stoutly bred with grand-dam Silk Sari a Group winner up to 3000m. Would not be out of place in an Epsom Oaks, never mind a VRC Oaks.
3/ Amazonian Lass (More Than Ready (USA) x Dynastic Lady, by Fastnet Rock) – Third in the Edward Manifold and then brave when leading and holding off Zardozi to win the G2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m).
Her sire has had Oaks winners as has her dam sire Fastnet Rock and her dam is a sister to G1 winning miler Age of Fire with next dam by Galileo, so plenty of reason to think she can keep it going a little further.
4/ Served Cold (Shamus Award x Sure You Can, by O’Reilly) – Lightly raced with two wins from four starts coming into her own with a win in the Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
By an outstanding Aussie sire of stayers in Shamus Award and is a full sister to G1 Australian Oaks winner El Patroness from a full sister to the dam of G1 Queensland Oaks winner Provocative. No question she is bred to be here and run the trip right out.
5/ Harlow Mist (NZ) (Contributer (IRE) x Sila Jasak, by Cullen) –Showed her credentials winning Flemington Oaks Trial (1800m) and last start third in G2 Wakeful.
By a G1 winning son of outstanding staying sire High Chaparral and stakes-placed dam is a half-sister to staying SW’s Stand Tall and Seul Amour being from Champion 3YO Filly and AJC and VRC Oaks winner Grand Archway. Hasn’t missed a place in five starts and can keep up the good work.
6/ Coco Sun (The Autumn Sun x Miss Hufflepuff, by Encosta de Lago ) – Stakes-winner at two over 1400m and more recently 10th in G3 Ethereal Stales and fifth in G2 Wakeful, so needs to improve.
From first crop of Champion 3YO Colt The Autumn Sun, who probably could have won a Derby had he run in one and her dam won up to 2000m and is a sister to Champion HK Stayer Liberator, so there are valid reasons to be hopeful, but certainly not confident.
7/ Basilinna (NZ) (Staphanos (Jpn) x So Royal , by Shinko King (IRE) – Maiden winner at Cranbourne over 1600m then eighth in G2 Edward Manifold Stakes and third in G3 Ethereal (2000m).
From first crop of Deep Impact G3 winner Staphanos from G3 placed So Royal, a winner up to 2000m from the family of NZ Derby winner Sir Silver Lad. This is an old Kiwi staying family with names like Kaapstad, Le Filou and Summertime featuring in the pedigree, so definitely bred to get the trip and then some.
8/ Aethelfled (Saxon Warrior (Jpn) x Chasing Mammon, by Giant’s Causeway) – Won maiden at Kembla over 2000m and then good fourth in G2 Wakeful.
From first crop of G1 winning son of Deep Impact and is a half-sister to three SW’s including G1 NZ Derby winner Sherwood Forest from an elite female family with third dam blue hen L’On Vite by US Horse of the Year Secretariat. Pedigree and performance suggest she’s a classic type filly and has been trained that way.
SCRATCHED 9/ Wings of Song (Mendelssohn (USA) x Tortoni, by Strategic) – Maiden winner over 1600m at Swan Hill, then ninth in G3 Ethereal and second in Benalla Benchmark 58 over 2040m.
Half-sister to G2 winner Cherry Tortoni, who was fourth in Victoria Derby and is from the one and only crop of Breeders Cup Turf Juvenile winner Mendelssohn, a son of Scat Daddy. Dam is a half-sister to Champion Stayer Tie the Knot and this filly can obviously stay OK, but probably not fast enough to trouble the top fillies.
10/ Ethel Maude (Smart Missile x Lola Betty, by Crowded House (GB) – Fourth in the Oaks Trial (1800m) and fifth in G2 Edward Manifold before bolting in with Pakenham 2000m maiden.
Bred by renowned breeder of stayers Trevor Delroy and is from the same family that has already produced two Group I winning classic three year-olds for him in Zabeelionaire and Gondokoro. Smart Missile has sired five SW’s at around the 2000m mark including G1 Spring Champion Stakes winner Maid of Heaven, but none over the classic trip. Place prospect.
11/ Peaky Ridge (Shamoline Warrior x Miss Peaky, by Strategic Maneuver)- Won 2000m maiden at Warrnambool by half a length at third start and is yet to race outside maiden class.
By a G3 winning half-brother to dual Derby winner Rebel Raider from the family of Sydney Cup winner Double Century, so there is some staying blood there, but class may be an issue.
12/ Vieste (Maurice (Jpn) x Blazing Dragon, by Pendragon) – One win from four starts at Newcastle over 1850m and was a poor last in the G2 Wakeful.
By the sire of dual Derby winner Hitotsu from a mare that won up to 2200m from the family of VRC St Leger winner Sacramento, so bred to stay, but last run was too awful to keep her under consideration.
13/ Another You (Frosted (USA) x Bahamas, by Teofilo (IRE) – Maiden after five starts and was fifth in G3 Ethereal Stakes after a second over 2000m at Ballarat.
By Frosted, who has never sired a staying stakes-winner. Half-sister to middle distance Group winners Berkeley Square and Senor Toba, who was second in the G1 Queensland Derby and has won at 2400m. She’s not as good as her siblings, but will win a race somewhere, just not this race.
14/ Everlasting Kiss (Justify (USA) x Tears of Joy, by Street Cry (IRE) – Third at her second start in Oaks Trial (1800m), then only 11th in G3 Ethereal.
From first crop of Triple Crown winner Justify, who won up to 2400m and dam won up to 2050m and traces back to the Diamond Lover branch of the Eight Carat family that has produced it’s share of Oaks and Derby winners. Pedigree is encouraging enough, but this is a hard race to break your maiden in.
Tips
1/ Tropical Squall
2/ Zardozi
3/ Served Cold
4/ Basilinna
Roughie
Ethel Maude
