Greg Polson previews Hawkesbury Thursday August 3

There is a winning way for punters at Hawkesbury on Thursday with a 50 percent winning strike rate and only two factors need to be considered.

The first factor to be considered is the favourite in 1000m races at Hawkesbury.

Here's the stats for the period January 1 2013 to June 30 2017.

When we dig deeper there is significant volatility in the overall statistics with a year by year breakdown telling us we cannot simply go out and back the favourites and keep the bank balance ticking over in a positive direction.

The overall figure is boosted by a stellar year in 2013 when the favourite won 78 per cent of the races and returned a POT of 96 per cent with the remaining years producing winning strike rates ranging 31 to 45 per cent but each of the remaining years returned a small loss on turnover.

Even though the overall statistics are profitable losing in three of the four completed years isn't good enough.

The addition of a single additional form factor substantially improves the profitability and volatility and that is the favourite must have led at their latest start.

That's it – just look at the favourite – check to see the position in running last start and you have the following results.

Here's the year by year breakdown for favourites that led at their latest outing over the Hawkesbury 1000m.

The Steve Englebrecht-trained Goldfinch is the $2.70 favourite for the Hawkesbury Race Club Motel Benchmark 70 Handicap (1000m) and qualifies for our winning way leading all the way to win her second race on the trot at Gosford last start.

The stats and form suggest Goldfinch is close to a good thing to complete the hat trick of wins at Hawkesbury on Thursday.