For the sires whose oldest progeny are three year-olds the next six months are a virtual judgment day with the clock now ticking to decide their fate in terms of commercial success going forward.
The harsh reality is that most sires fail, no matter how good their credentials appear at the start. It is at about this point in time when their first crop are now three year-olds heading into autumn and their second crop are becoming more exposed that some sires fall off a cliff commercially, while others earn a pass mark to gain further opportunities in the spring.
So where are we at with these guys?
Leading Second Crop Sires by Earnings as at 13/2/2024
13 of them have sired Australian stakes-winners this season and Trapeze Artist, Harry Angel (IRE) and Prized Icon have sired Group I winners in Griff, Tom Kitten and Tropical Squall respectively, while Justify (USA) has boom 2YO colt Storm Boy.
The lifetime stats for those at stud in Australia last spring for their Southern Hemisphere bred runners look like this.
Lifetime Sorted by Winner to Runner
|
Sire |
Winner / Runner |
SW/ Runner |
|
Justify (USA) |
56% |
9% |
|
Brave Smash (Jpn) |
54% |
2.30% |
|
The Autumn Sun |
45% |
4.50% |
|
Harry Angel (IRE) |
45% |
5% |
|
Trapeze Artist |
44% |
1.20% |
|
Written By |
37% |
3.20% |
|
Encryption |
32% |
3.60% |
|
Grunt |
28% |
4% |
|
Prized Icon |
11% |
2.70% |
Lifetime Sorted by SW to Runner
|
Sire |
Winner / Runner |
SW/ Runner |
|
Justify (USA) |
56% |
9% |
|
Harry Angel (IRE) |
45% |
5% |
|
The Autumn Sun |
45% |
4.50% |
|
Grunt (NZ) |
28% |
4% |
|
Encryption |
32% |
3.60% |
|
Written By |
37% |
3.20% |
|
Prized Icon |
11% |
2.70% |
|
Brave Smash (Jpn) |
54% |
2.30% |
|
Trapeze Artist |
44% |
1.20% |
For Justify and Harry Angel it is important to consider the overall picture taking into account their Northern Hemisphere progeny.
Justify had a dazzling last 12 months and now has the overall winner to runner strike rate for both hemispheres of 47.5% and his SW to runner strike rate is 10% with six of his 26 stakes-winners so far being Group I winners.
Justify has returned to Coolmore Kentucky where his fee is Listed as private.
Harry Angel has had plenty of runners in Europe and has the overall winner to runner strike rate of 53.7%, while his SW to runner is 4.4% with a pair of Group III winning sprinters Marshman and Al Dasim his best bred in the Northern Hemisphere.
He is clearly doing better in Australia and his Northern Hemisphere fee at for 2024 is just £10,000 at Darley’s UK base of Dalham Hall .
