Australian Derby Showdown – Can Pedigree Find the Trifecta Long Shots?

Tara Madgwick - Thursday Apr 2

The $2million ATC Australian Derby (2400m) at Randwick this Saturday will be a fascinating watch even without elite colts Autumn Boy and Attica, who have elected to roll the dice in the Doncaster instead, but there are more horses in this race outside of the two established Derby heroes Observer (Victoria) and Road to Paris (New Zealand).

No point looking at pedigrees for horses that have already won a G1 Derby, that box is ticked but for some of these others a close look might help you with trifecta selections.

Observer won the G1 VRC Victoria Derby - image Grant Courtney

Observer will fly the Godolphin flag, but there is plenty of confidence about their other runner Green Spaces coming off a last start second in the Group I ATC Rosehill Guineas.

If Green Spaces can win he will become the first SW anywhere in the world over longer than 2000m for Street Boss - image Bradley Photos

He is by Street Boss (USA), who is an outstanding stallion and has sired 88 stakes-winners worldwide, but not one of those stakes-winners has been successful beyond 2000m although you could count Anamoe, who did win a Cox Plate at 2040m and was never tried over further.

Green Spaces is no Anamoe, but he does have a deep pedigree.

He is a three-quarter brother to Group I winning sprinter Trekking, who never won beyond 1400m, but punters can take heart from his grand-dam Serenade Rose, who was the Champion 3YO Filly of her generation and won both the Group I VRC Oaks and Australian Oaks… he’ll be needing to channel some of her stamina after they turn for home.

Storm Leopard is a Godolphin bred in disguise - image Bradley Photos

Storm Leopard has come late to this party by way of a last start win in the Group II ATC Tulloch Stakes last Saturday and it was a big win, enough to warrant paying the late entry into this race and by all accounts the Lindsay Park team are happy with him coming to the quick back up.

He’s a Godolphin bred in disguise as they ditched his dam Brilliance at the 2022 Magic Millions National Broodmare Sale for $260,000 in foal to Ghaiyyath (IRE) and he is the result of that mating.

Brilliance is a blueblood, an unraced Street Cry (IRE) sibling to Group I winners Epaulette, Helmet and Pericles (who runs in the Doncaster), not to mention Group winners Pearls and Bullbars (sire of Mr Brightside) and Lavalier, who ran second in the Group I SA Derby.

Before Storm Leopard emerged on the scene, Brilliance was staring down the barrel of mediocrity having produced four average winners by champion sires Exceed and Excel, Snitzel and Lonhro, but a change in pace with a mating to a European Horse of the Year in Ghaiyyath has revived her fortunes.

In a race with a long tail, Storm Leopard is my top pick.

Advertisement

Let’s take a quick look through the rest in search of the stayers!

4/ Deal Done Fast (Dundeel) – By a great sire of Classic winners from a top class international female family and not quite sure how he’s still a maiden. Placed in Victoria Derby and can place here.

6/ One Step Closer (Castelvecchio) – By the same sire as last year’s winner Aeliana and Castelveccio is by Dundeel. Dam was bred in Japan and plenty of staying SW’s on the page.

7/ Federalist (I Am Invincible) – By a champion sire that does not produce stayers and this guy is still a maiden and likely to remain so on Saturday.

8/ Savisanta (Savabeel)- By champion sire that does get stayers and he was sixth in the Victoria Derby and is a stronger horse now so can improve.

9/ Victorious Spirit (Ghaiyyath (IRE) – Third runner in in the race for Ghaiyyath although does come from more of a speed female family, but dam is by Zabeel sire Reset and if you can forgive last start when he had excuses, I’m not thinking pedigree will give him an excuse this time.

10/ Kaye Jay (Crackerjack King (IRE) – By an elite Euro G1 winning stayer, albeit not a fashionable sire, and dam is by High Chaparral from Queensland Oaks placed Rathsallagh. He is bred to think it’s Christmas when he goes over 2400m!

11/ Bingi (Snitzel) – Snitzel has one Derby winner in Hong Kong at 2000m and zero Classic winners here over the real 2400m classic trip, so Bingi is a no for me on pedigree.

12/ Are You Kidding(Castelvecchio)  Second runner in the race for Castelvecchio and he is looking like staying will be his thing, but for a first go at Black Type he’s being pitched into the deep end and I don’t see him swimming.

13/ Dezignation (So You Think) – Full brother to Group I ATC Queen of the Turf Stakes winner Nimalee, but lacks her turn of foot. Has had a few goes at 2400m in easier grade and there was no joy.

Advertisment
More Reading...
Inglis Digital Purchase Iron Hawk to Tackle G3 TAB Mile
Harness racing trainer Barry Purdon bought Iron Hawk last year with New Zealand Cup Week in mind, and now the moment has arrived, with the stakes performer set to tackle the Gr.3 TAB Mile (1600m) at Riccarton on Wednesday.
Doing Time Wins $100,000 Sprinters Challenge at Riccarton
Lee Callaway shared many jockeys’ rooms with Chris Johnson throughout his riding career, so it was only fitting that the Waikouaiti trainer took out the inaugural running of the Chris Johnson Three-Year-Old Sprinters Challenge (1200m) at Riccarton on Wednesday with Doing Time.
G1 Aussie Pedigree Watch –Newly Minted
Pedigree does matter if you want to be winning races longer than 1200m, although in an interesting twist a colt bred on face value for speed is in fact from the family of Zabeel.
Wild Ruler Winner Impressive at Warwick Farm
Annabel and Rob Archibald have high hopes for Wild Ruler 3YO Priory Park, who confirmed their good opinion of him when scoring a dominant win at Warwick Farm on Wednesday with James McDonald in the saddle.
Unraced Brother to G2 Winner Hope in Your Heart Tops MM Digital
Unraced three-year-old Dundeel gelding Putcee (Lot 4) topped the Magic Millions Digital (6-11 Nov) Sale which concluded this afternoon, selling for $30,000 to Liam Ruddy after 38 bids.
Redwood Gelding wins G3 TAB Mile
The late money for Coulthard in the Gr.3 TAB Mile (1600m) proved astute on Wednesday, with the Central Districts raider dashing home to claim the Riccarton feature.
Sires With Winners - Tuesday November 10
Here is the full list of 16 stallions which had winners throughout Australasia today with winners and result details.
One to Watch – Mornington
A homebred for Seymour Bloodstock with an intriguing pedigree opened her account with a stylish win at Mornington on Tuesday.
Frankel Heads Juddmonte Euro Roster at £350,000
Fresh from siring outstanding young stayer Point of Law (GB) to win the $10m Group I VRC Melbourne Cup, champion sire Frankel will again top the roster at Banstead Manor Stud for Juddmonte.
Unraced First Season Sires Trial Report
It’s been a pretty steady start to spring in terms of 2YO races and we are still waiting to see a first season sire post a winner, but there has been action aplenty at the trials which would indicate the pre-Christmas period is set to ignite.