A big field of 16 will go to the post for the $4million Group I ATC Doncaster Mile on Saturday at Randwick and there is a short priced favourite that will take a power of beating.
2026 promises to be one of the more memorable runnings as star 3yo filly and hot favourite Sheza Alibi ( Saxon Warrior) attempts to become the first of her age and sex to take the race since Sunline - see more on her here.
G1 Caulfield Guineas hero Autumn Boy ( The Autumn Sun) gets the blinkers back on as he attempts to avenge his comprehensive Randwick Guineas defeat at the hands (hooves?) of the filly, while the impressive G1 Spring Champion winner Attica (Lonhro) and classy last start G2 Phar Lap Stakes winner Sixties ( Flying Artie) who has also previously beaten Autumn Boy, round out a quality contingent of three year olds in the field of sixteen.
With the track hovering on the border of a Soft 5/6 and a few showers forecast on Saturday, by the time R8 comes around I'm assuming it's going to suit horses who genuinely like to get their toe in.
Top Pick: VIVY AIR
Vivy is racing in the form of her life and has blossomed under the care of Ciaron Maher into the serious G1 performer she always promised to be. She's the only mare in the Doncaster field of 2026.
You need a tough horse to win this race, and the five year old daughter of Yarraman Park's hot sire Hellbent is as tough as they come.
Vivy Air is a journeywoman. She has raced in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. She has trekked to Dubbo, Tamworth, Kembla, Geelong, Seymour, Ballarat, Grafton and Newcastle. No matter which racecourse she finds herself at, from the humble to the headquarters, she puts in 1000% every time.
From 29 starts, she has won 4 and placed in 13 for career earnings of just a tick over $3 million.
Vivy's first up, eye-catching third in the G1 Coolmore saw her clock the best closing sectionals of the race and she improves second up, loves the Randwick mile and drops to a mere 51kg.
Hellbent's son Fully Lit almost stole the G1 Epsom last season at big odds, and it took one as good as Autumn Glow to run him down. That's not Vivy's style - she'll come from behind, but the breed have serious momentum when they get rolling.
Bred by OTI Racing, Vivy Air had a change of ownership and trainer last year.
Her dam Head Over Heels by Fastnet Rock is now owned by Yarraman Park and is hopefully in foal to Hellbent, having missed to him for a couple of seasons. Her last foal by the sire is the OTI bred filly Somersault, who shows some promise and winning sibling Loafer who died young.
Vivy Air is one of three stakeswinners the son of I Am Invincible has sired from Fastnet Rock mares, the others being the top class filly Savvy Hallie and dual Listed winner Sunrays.
Vivy Air is a half sister to South African G2 winner and dual G1 sire New Predator, and is one of seven winners from seven to race from her dam.
Head Over Heels is a half sister to the four time stakes winning sprinter Presently and they were foaled by Centaine's Gift ( Centaine). She had a full sister Celebrity Status who would produce three stakes winners including Belongs In Lights, dam of three stakes winners of her own. That mare would become the grand dam of the memorable upset G1 Newmarket Hcp / VRC Sprint Classic heroine Roch'N'Horse!
Note - Vivy Air's third dam Forever And Ever was by the Epsom / Doncaster hero Authentic Heir ( a son of Coronation Boy) out of Minnie Sue by Better Boy.
Vivy Air was born to be an iron mare - not only do the Hellbents have an incredible constitution and will to win - she is also bred x 2 to one of the toughest and most genuine racehorses to ever look through a bridle in Better Boy, who famously “won” the Caulfield Cup of his own volition having lost his jockey at the start, beating home the hot favourite Redcraze. No pilot required!
Vivy Air is a descendant of Absurdity, a full sister to Doxa who became the third dam of breedshaping matriarch La Troienne - through the stakes winner Mere who founded a successful and very speedy branch of this family through her daughter Captivation by Vain.
Vivy Air is bred
Danzig 5m,5m x 4m
Green Desert 4m,4m x
Better Boy x 5m,5f sex balanced
Her pedigree is basically a symphony of linebreeding to Better Boy’s sire My Babu. She has further lines to him via Sir Tristram and Artaius (daughters) and son Crozier.
My Babu is from the family of Turn-To to whom she carries multiple lines including Sir Ivor (sex balanced) and Habitat, plus relatives Alycidon and Klairon.
Vivy Air’s ancestress Doretta was by Foxlaw, son of Alope (2f) and this pedigree boasts extensive duplication of family members Round Table and Aureole plus Atan, this being Fastnet Rock's tribe as well.
Both Hellbent and Century, who sired Vivy Air's second damsire the great Centaine, descend from daughters of Talking, a VRC Derby winning son of the legendary stallion Magpie.
Talking's dam Society was by Absurd and Vivy Air's own ancestress Folly was Absurd's full sister.
It's the La Troienne nick - and she is so prominent in the pedigree of Hellbent via Green Desert x 2 who brings her via Blue Hen Lalun, by Djebel - not only My Babu's sire, but also of Targui - who creates yet another turbocharged nick by appearing on Vivy Air's damline.
Ciaron Maher is chasing his first Doncaster Mile and Vivy's stablemate Gringotts, to whom she has twice finished runner up in the Big Dance at this course/distance, is at far shorter odds than she - but is attempting to win with 58.5kg. Such weights have brought so many good horses undone in this race. (Unless you are Super Impose, read about him here).
Gringotts is a huge talent, but my money is going on the mare to beat him - and hopefully the rest of them! - home this time.
Vivy Air will launch her bid for Doncaster glory from barrier 11 with Reece Jones aboard.
Next Best: SHEZA ALIBI
The talk of the town is this startling talent, and rightly so. The last three year old filly to win the Donny was Sunline in 1999.
No one is going crazy with Sunline comparisons just yet, but Sheza Alibi does look to be something quite out of the box - and the punters are backing her like she might be almost as good as the dual Cox Plate winner!
The last of Sheza's age and sex to succeed as an odds-on pop was Valicare in 1926.
In its entire history, only twelve fillies have won the Doncaster. Sheza Alibi is in rare air even now, having cruised to victory in the G1 Randwick Guineas in an absolute canter, going past the Caulfield Guineas hero Autumn Boy like he was nailed to the fence - in so doing, the daughter of Saxon Warrior (JPN) became the first filly since Mosheen in 2012 to win that Classic.
If she can step up again and win this at just her tenth race start, it would be a stratospheric rise which would inevitably draw Sunline-ish comparisons.
Previously trained in Queensland by Kris Hansen, Sheza Alibi was transferred into the stable of Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman after a second to Autumn Boy in a Listed race at Eagle Farm in June last year gave notice of her promise.
She was third to Darley super colt Tentyris in the Gothic Stakes on resuming, and since then has swanned through four stakes starts undefeated, with her two wins at the mile being particularly devastating.
But where did this freakish talent come from?
Sheza Alibi is the first G1 winner for Coolmore’s superbly bred, dual G1 winner Saxon Warrior in this Hemisphere, though daughters Archaic Smile and Aethelflaed are G1 placed.
The stallion shuttled to Australia for four seasons but has not returned since 2022.
His NH winner at the highest level is the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner Victoria Road, and he has 19 stakes winners to date.
A son of breedshaper Deep Impact from Galileo's unbeaten champion Maybe, Saxon Warrior hails from a family that specialises in throwing elite fillies and stallions who sire them. He certainly takes care of the pure class factor.
What about the dam of this filly? Sheza Alibi's lineage, while certainly solid, boasts no such imperious genetic quality.
She was offered as a weanling by Middlebrook Valley Lodge in the 2023 Inglis Digital June (early) sale, and was purchased by her owner Fred Noffkey for a paltry $10,000. She has now earned $1.2 million.
Sheza is the third foal and only winner from her dam Sheza Gypsy, a moderately talented but genuine winner of six races, sired by Flying Spur's G2 Silver Slipper winner Shaft.
While he has only two stakeswinners to his name and stands on a modest fee, the well related Shaft is from the great Princess Tracy family and thus closely related to the excellent broodmare sires Danasinga and Towkay, and to champion mare Typhoon Tracy etc etc- so he has always had the potential lurking to pop up in the pedigree of a superstar filly - and now he has.
Sheza Gypsy's colt by King’s Legacy named Nomadic sold for $160,000 at Inglis Classic to John Thompson Racing and Boomer Bloodstock and placed third in the Listed Bailleau last week.
The mare was not covered in 2023/4 and sold through Inglis Digital in July last year for just $1250.
She is now awaiting a foal by Newgate Farm's G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes winning Zoustar son Ozzmosis.
Sheza Gypsy is a half sister to the Listed Canberra Guineas winner Rom Baro ( exp HK), and they were two of seven winners produced from the stakes placed Gypsy Mai (Our Maizcay).
The NZ bred Our Maizcay was an absolute bullet. The grandson of Marscay won 13 from 19 and defeated the likes of Flying Spur, Octagonal, Strategic, All Our Mob and Gold Ace during a six race winning streak in Australia which culminated in a three length demolition job in the Caulfield Guineas, his only G1 win. Our Maizcay won most of his races by big margins.
He was a relative stud dud but his dam was by the Aga Khan's Dalsaan - a half brother to champion Doyoun, while his grand dam Arctic Walk produced Icelandic who was a successful sire in NZ.
Gypsy Mai's half sister Beethog was a G3 winner and produced the G2 Reisling winner Glistening to Zoustar.
Third dam Gypsy Ahlee by Caerleon son Alquoz was unraced but a good producer; next dam War Gypsy (Rascolnik by Reliance) was a winner getter too but her offspring lacked stakes class.
And the same can be said for most of the mares going back from her on Sheeza Alibi's damline, where we get gumboot-deep into some tough old Kiwi genetics. The family was introduced into NZ in the late 1890s by the importation of the interesting Australian bred mare Cantatrice.
Her sire the champion Goldsborough and second damsire Lapidist were three quarter brothers, and her own dam was even more inbred. This damline ( branch of 4-b) goes back to Blue Hen Anticipation. Her various daughters became the taproot mares of many of the number 4 families.
Sheza Alibi is bred
Danehill 4f x 4m
I immediately zoom back in time to marvel at the nick between the sire Alchimist (x 2 in Galileo) and Sheza Alibi's far removed female relatives.
Galileo's grand dam Allegretta was sired by dual German HOTY Lombard, a son of Agio out of Aralia ( Alchimist x Aster)
Alchimist's sire Herold traces to Crofts Spinster, a half sister to the abovementioned mare Anticipation, but the affinities build as the generations progress.
Along the way we have Welcome Lu sired by the German import Lucullus who is a five star nick for Galileo from Lady Birdwood - her sire the VRC St Leger winner Finland was a particularly inbred member of the 4-b tribe. The greatness of Galileo and his dam has truly “recognised” and galvanised these old lines, humbly but faithfully carried forward by the mares of Sheza Alibi's family.
Going back to the less esoteric, we have sex balanced duplication of Halo to enhance the double of Danehill, also of Mr Prospector, Northern Dancer and Ahonoora.
Much linebreeding to the 1-w family abounds - Halo, Sir Ivor, Hail To Reason and Habitat all tail male to Turn-To, while Borealis x2 , My Babu, Ahonoora's grandsire Klairon, Hotfoot and Rascolnik are all his relatives.
Another strongly linebred family is the one to which Sunday Silence belongs, La Fleche / Cinna ( 3-e). Saxon Warrior provides a line to his relative Indian Ridge while on the dam side of this pedigree we have Umidwar ( x 2 in Hotfoot) and his sister Uidapur through a lesser seen avenue to the family in Hindostan. Beau Pere, carried by Danehill, is a direct descendant of Cinna.
Blue Hens Lalun, La Troienne, Selene and Alope all feature prominently.
That's about all there's room for here but pedigree nerds will forensically detect plenty more, as it's endlessly fascinating to delve into the breeding of an exceptional horse that comes from relatively humble beginnings!
This is a big moment for a bold little filly and the larrikin cattle farmer who owns her - he reckons he blew about $1 million buying horses online until this gem came along.
Sheza Alibi and Jamie Melham will race for an all-girl piece of Aussie turf history from barrier 13.
Roughie: EVAPORATE
Evaporate is only four years of age and first raced in early 2024, but it feels like he's been around longer than that. The talented and gritty son of Per Incanto has become a fixture in major races, matching motors with the best sprinter milers in the land.
In 22 lifetime starts, he has run poorly just twice - tailed off in the Cox Plate as a three year old ( but frankly, the horse was slaughtered by the ride that day) - and an unimpressive 9th at his latest run in the George Ryder.
Until that moment I was all over Evaporate as a massive Doncaster hope. The run was unlike him and is a bit of a concern, but - it was his first look at Rosehill and maybe he just didn't like the place. Or maybe, his big second up run when a fighting second to Tom Kitten in the G1 All-Star Mile left the Ben, Will and JD Hayes trained Kiw-bred galloper a little flat.
His significant weight drop, fourth up stats, record at Randwick and liking for a soft track have convinced me Evaporate can bounce back with a vengeance here, especially with hot jockey Zac Lloyd in the saddle.
I also keep going back to Evaporate's epic Toorak Hcp performance with 58kg on his back, where he completely faffed the start but still was just pipped out of a well deserved G1 victory by Transatlantic. He is a top quality, I reckon specialist fast mile / maybe 1800m horse - not brilliant, but relentless and tough in the clinches.
The Kiwi has been mixing it with the best his entire career - this unassuming son of Per Incanto is no stranger to the big stage.
At four, he has had 22 lifetime starts and notched up the impressive earnings of $3,153,476
Evaporate placed in the G1 Caulfield Guineas, was an unlucky fourth in Futurity, won the G3 Carbine Club over the Randwick mile at The Championships last year, placed in the inaugural running of NZ's richest race the $3.5 million NZB Kiwi (1500m), gutsed out an epic battle with Kitten and Jenni in the All-Star Mile - and went around in the holy of holies, the WS Cox Plate.
He is a horse with plenty of street cred.
Evaporate was bred by Little Avondale Stud, home to his outstanding sire Per Incanto.
The son of Street Cry is flying, through the deeds of horses like Jimmysstar and Doncaster toppie Gringotts to name but two of his best performers.
Per Incanto is also the damsire of the fastest horse on the planet, Everest hero and superfreak Ka Ying Rising - he's a fabulous sire.
Evaporate was purchased by Lindsay Park Racing for A$330,000 at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale in 2023.
Little Avondale’s Sam and Catriona Williams wisely retained a share in the ownership of the colt, which they bred from the unraced Animal Kingdom mare Savanna, a half sister to Australian G3 winner Belluci Babe (Per Incanto)
Their dam Savamour by the mighty Savabeel is a three quarter sister to the classy stayers Philosophe and Men At Work.
She is a half sister to stakes winning sprinter-milers Magnum (Per Incanto) and Sir Lovesalot (Darci Brahma) and to stakes placed Hong Kong galloper Trillion Win (Last Tycoon)
This family is one of NZ's most reliable sources of stakes horses which is that of the very fine mares Sound Lover (Sound Reason) - Evaporate's third dam - and her champion full sister Candide (dam of G1 Blue Diamond winner and G1 sire Nadeem, and HK stakes winner Billion Win)
This damline goes back to stakes producing Agricola daughter Country Girl and then further in a rarely broken succession of black type producers to the matriarch Flora McIvor - bred in NSW, exported to NZ in 1854 and a grand daughter of legendary taproot mare Manto (Colonial family 18)
Another branch from Flora McIvor gives us the great NZ “Belle” family to which belong champions like Anamoe, Melody Belle and Grand Armee.
From yet other branches sprang superhorses like Strawberry Road, High Caste and Tie The Knot - also NZ HOTY Puccini and his G1 winning half brother Sir Slick, and possibly the greatest Melbourne Cup mudlark of all time in Van Der Hum!
Flora McIvor's daughter Waimea is Evaporate's direct ancestress and from her came Phar Lap's great rival Nightmarch - a true champion in his own right.
Just a few of the best known names from this prolific and enduring family!
Evaporate is bred
Ahonoora 4m x 5f sex balanced.
Ahonoora is a linebreeding subject of particular merit, especially when sex balanced as here - he has truly been a breed shaping sire through his wonderful daughters Park Appeal (Cape Cross, Iffraaj, Diktat) and Park Express (New Approach, Shinko Forest), among others.
Though a pure sprinter himself, Ahonoora proved a revelation at stud, getting top class winners over all distances.
His male line has thrived through the deeds of Indian Ridge, and to illustrate the versatility of this blood - Per Incanto is a brilliant and prepotent speedsire out of an Indian Ridge mare, yet Melbourne Cup champion Dunaden was a grandson of Indian Ridge and so was Makybe Diva's great rival Vinnie Roe.
Evaporate carries the Zabeel cross on which Per Incanto's dual G1 winner Jimmysstar (Zed) and G1 George Ryder hero Gingotts (Savabeel again) are bred.
Evaporate is linebred to Sir Ivor (sex balanced) and to his Royal Charger / Turn-To tail male line with three duplications of Hail To Reason, two of Sir Gaylord, a line to Reverse via Savabeel and a key Royal Charger daughter carried by Street Cry.
Turn-To's dam Source Sucree is of the famed Marchetta family and Evaporate's pedigree is loaded with complementary members of the tribe - notably lines to Agricola and his half brothers Alycidon and Borealis, Sayani and his half brother My Babu, and Klairon - the all important tail male ancestor of Ahonoora.
Champion hoop and Ka Ying Rising's best buddy Zac Purton is in town for the big day and he takes the reins for the very first time on Evaporate. I like this for the horse a lot.
Zac and Vap will jump from barrier 12.
Blowout: LINEBACKER
The 2025 Randwick Guineas winner comes to the Donny third up, and wouldn't a win be perfect timing for his outstanding sire Super Seth - who has just been purchased by Coolmore from Waikato Stud to stand in Australia. Linebacker had the honour of being Seth's very first stakes winner.
Linebacker was super unlucky in last year's Doncaster as a three year old and he wasn't the only one. The fact that the first five horses over the line were all at double figure odds is a reflection of the messy sit-sprint affair it turned into and let's trust that this year's race is more truly run. Still, he was less than two lengths from the winner.
The handsome chestnut certainly needs a genuine pace to unfold. His two WFA lead ups have been acceptable, he usually takes a run or two to get going. It looks like he doesn't like soft tracks but as he's a lover of heavy I think the stat might be deceiving - as each of those soft track runs have been second up, which appears to be a little performance trough for him as he gets older.
The Tom Charlton trained Linebacker loves Randwick and now drops to a comfortable 53.5kg.
Bred by Munz's GSA Bloodstock, the strapping individual races for a partnership, including the Finemore family and Frank and Christine Cook, in whose colours he runs.
A $160,000 Karaka Book 1 purchase for John O'Shea Racing / Suman Hedge Bloodstock (FBAA) from the Haunui Farm draft, Linebacker was the third foal and second winner for an unraced, regally bred Oasis Dream daughter with the beautiful name of Garden of Swans (GB).
By a world famous broodmare sire, she is a half sister to G1 Eclipse Stakes hero Mukhadram.
Linebacker's second dam Magic Tree (Timber Country), was bred in the UAE and is a half sister to G1 winners Kirklees and Mastery. Her daughters by Galileo, It's Magic and Oh So Lovely were bred by Coolmore and are now part of the illustrious Yulong broodmare band.
Their dam Moyesii (Diesis) was one of four fillies produced by the world class sprinting mare Cherokee Rose (Dancing Brave) who won the G1 Haydock Park Sprint Cup and G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest.
Moyesii's half sister Cara Bella (Seeking The Gold) was a stakes producer for Darley and her full sister Hint Of Spring is the grand dam of Dubawi's four time G1 winner Notable Speech. The fourth half sister Rose De France ( Diktat) became dam of G1 sire Cable Bay.
This illustrious family is that of the Secretariat mare Celtic Assembly, dear to our hearts in this part of the world as the dam of the great NZ sire Volksraad.
It descends from the G1 Irish Oaks heroine Agar's Plough and is a branch of family 10-c to which also belong champions Rip Van Winkle, Dark Angel and Halling.
The 10-c family is prominent in this pedigree’s linebreeding subject Relic.
Linebacker is bred
Danzig 5m x 4m
Dancing Brave x 4f,5f
The Arc hero Dancing Brave was renowned for his incredible turn of foot and inbreeding to him is a successful pattern for the kind of speed that wins races like this, rather than 2YO precocity.
A key factor in Linebacker's pedigree are horses descending from Mabille (family 2-0) She is ancestress of Diesis carried on Linebacker's damline, and Super Seth's ancestress Miss Eastern carries the stallion Sea Prince, a strongly inbred member of the tribe. Dundeel descends from a daughter of Sucaryl, a close relation of Diesis himself. High Chaparral brings a line Kris,the full brother to Diesis.
Mabille is a key source of much of the speed imparted by these great stallions, combining to great effect with the blood of her breedshaping descendant The Tetrarch - the blindingly fast
“Spotted Wonder” who became the damsire of the flying filly Mumtaz Mahal, from whom descend Nasrullah, Royal Charger, Mahmoud etc.
Linebacker has three lines to Lyphard (Super Seth's fourth damsire Dahar was another of his greatest sons) and is sex balanced to Sir Ivor with multiple lines of his sire Sir Gaylord, a half brother to Secretariat, his fifth damsire. Oasis Dream chips in with relative Busted.
Green Desert's ancestress Tulle ( War Admiral x Beau Pere x Betty Derr) meets her sister in blood Iron Reward (Beau Pere x War Admiral x Betty Derr) the dam of Swaps, carried by Timber Country.
Sex balanced linebreeding to Blue Hen Lalun is a major feature, along with the families of La Troienne and Chelandry.
Linebacker was named by NFL tragics who were waiting for a horse they thought deserving of such a cool moniker.
To be honest, I know little about the game played by those V shaped guys in tights that Americans call “football” - but Google told me about one of the great linebacking moments of all time!
The occasion: Superbowl XLIII
The moment: James Harrison's 100 yard interception return. “As time expired in the first half, Harrison (Pittsburgh Steelers) intercepted Kurt Warner and ran 100 yards for a touchdown, often described as one of the most physically exhausting and impactful plays in Super Bowl history”. ( Harrison himself frequently refers to it as the greatest play in Superbowl history)
Zac Lloyd and Linebacker will be hoping to unleash something like the equine version of this - and their run starts from barrier 9.
