The $1million Group I ATC Australian Oaks (2400m) will be run at Randwick on Saturday and is a race with a very long tail given so few horses are bred in this country to run well at a classic trip which is why the race favourite is Group I New Zealand Oaks winner Ohope Wins.
Now trained by Chris Waller after being acquired by Yulong and transferred into his care after her NZ Oaks win, Ohope Wins was dominant in that win and had excuses when a close fourth in the Group I ATC Vinery Stud Stakes last month with the winner of that race, Belle Cheval, now in the paddock.
She’s had plenty of racing over a trip and unless she has trained off, given she made her debut in mid-November and has been in work ever since, it’s impossible not to see Ohope Wins as the horse to beat.
Second in the Group I ATC Vinery Stud Stakes and placed third in the VRC Oaks last spring, the Dom Sutton trained After Summer is one horse that is genuinely bred to stay and is racing accordingly.
Michael Freedman is better known for his success with the short course horses, but Farnan filly Profoundly is in with a big chance after she defied her pedigree to run a strong 2000m and win the Group III ATC Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) last Saturday.
Pedigree is highly questionable for 2400m given she is by a Golden Slipper winner from a family where all the stakes-winners in the first three dams on the page are sprinter milers, but she’s a big strong girl in top form against some very average opposition and that will take her a long way.
The other contender with some good recent form is Soverato (NZ) and her pedigree definitely says yes.
Her sire Vadamos (Fr) was a G1 winner to 2400m and is by staying super sire Monsun and she is a half-sister to a Kiwi SW at 2100m. Her female family has some real class with her dam a half-sister to Group I winning sprinter Barkada and third dam Strawberry Fair won the Group I STC Orlando Classic (now the Coolmore Classic).
First three dam sires Casino Prince, Marscay and Whisky Road (USA) all sired classic winners in Australia, so pedigree won’t be stopping her on Saturday.
Let’s check out the rest for a glimmer of pedigree hope that 2400m can bring out their best!
5/ Long Legs (Russian Revolution) – By a sprinting son of Snitzel and every SW in the immediate family is a sprinter, so that’s a no.
6/ Stand My Ground (North Pacific) – By a fast son of Brazen Beau that is yet to sire a SW and comes from a skinny branch of a famous family tracing back to revered matriarch Dancing Show, who is her fifth dam, but none of this says Oaks.
7/ Classic Gem (Maurice (Jpn) – Maiden by a proven classic sire in Maurice and was fourth in the VRC Oaks last spring. Dam is by Dundeel and comes from outstanding Kiwi family tracing back to blue hen My Tricia, so this pedigree a definite yes.
8/ Queen of Clubs (Maurice (Jpn) – By the same sire as previous and bred on same cross as his dual Derby winner Hitosu. Dam is a French bred Redoute’s Choice mare from a Euro female family not short on stamina. Pedigree a yes, but form needs a big lift.
9/ Satono Invader (NZ) (Satono Aladdin (Jpn) – By versatile sire that has already given us dual Oaks winner Pennyweka and from a tough old NZ family with third dam G1 winning miler Pace Invader. Positives outweigh the negatives in quest for stamina.
10/ La Morra (Toronado (IRE) – Toronado is a top class sire by Epsom Derby winner High Chaparral, but a lot of his progeny are more sprinter milers as he was himself, although he does get the odd stayer and this girl is from imported SW Evo Campo, who did win up to 2400m, so not hard to see why connections are having a crack.
11/ Mountain Queen (Fierce Impact (Jpn) – By a triple G1 winning miler, who is by the legendary Japanese sire Deep Impact, whose reputation was built on producing elite classic winners and some of the world’s best stayers. No Black Type in the first three dams until you go back a bit further and General Nediym appears like the proverbial needle in a haystack, but if you go back further again there is loads of Kiwi staying blood. This stable produced Dezignation to run second in the Australian Derby at 150-1, so why not Mountain Queen?
12/ Dance with Destiny (NZ) (Contributer (IRE) – Four start maiden that has never raced beyond 1600m and is yet to place, albeit finished fourth at her past two runs. Her sire won up to 2000m and is another successful sire son of High Chaparral and her female pedigree does scream Oaks as Mum is a half-sister to G1 Royal Ascot Gold Cup winner Trip to Paris, who was also second in a Caulfield Cup and fourth in the Melbourn Cup.
She’s trained by John Sargent, who is a genius with a staying filly and pedigree makes her the Hail Mary bet in the race!
