The decision to raise the prizemoney on the Group I VRC Victoria Derby (2500m) to $3million is one that puts a lot of money on the table for a very limited pool of horses, so if you want to win it you need to go fishing in the right places.
The Magic Millions 2YO Classic (1200m) is another $3million race limited to a very small pool of horses, but in that instance, we are talking about early season juveniles bred for speed and that means the vast majority of commercially bred Australian thoroughbreds.
The only horses that can win an MM 2YO Classic are those with speed, mental capacity and constitution to withstand the training to go early.
In many ways, the Victoria Derby requires the same horse, albeit one geared to stamina as opposed to speed.
While the distances involved are polar opposite, the basic mental and physical requirements needed from the horse are quite similar. They have to be tractable and trainable, good brain and good appetite.
The big problem is that as a nation we breed thousands of sprinters, but very few horses with real staying pedigrees and that’s getting less and less all the time with the trend towards purchasing ready to go Euro stayers.
That said, a look at the honour roll of Victoria Derby winners since 2000 shows us that there are two ways an owner can give themselves a better chance of winning and that is purchasing in New Zealand and/or purchasing the progeny of shuttle sires.
Since 2000, of the 26 winners, 10 were bred in New Zealand and of the 16 Aussie bred winners, 12 were sired by stallions bred in the Northern Hemisphere. Click here to see the interactive honour roll of Victorian Derby winners.
The only Aussie bred winners by Australian bred stallions were: Plastered (Laranto), Rebel Raider (Reset), Fiveanahalfstar (Hotel Grand) and Extra Brut (Domesday).
After years of Aussie speed, speed and more speed, there is an apparent swing back to the shuttle stallions in progress and it’s reassuring that recent Derby winners Hitotsu (Maurice (Jpn) and Observer (Ghaiyyath (IRE) have both been given an opportunity at major studs with Arrowfield standing the former and Darley the latter, although he is sadly now out of service due to colic surgery.
What we do know is that the champion Australian sires that have ruled the roost since Snitzel took over at the top in 2016/2017 can’t sire classic horses… and here I’m talking about I Am Invincible, Written Tycoon, Zoustar and of course Snitzel.
These guys are a completely different kettle of fish to those past supersires Danehill and Zabeel, who dominated racing and breeding in this country leading into and away from the turn of the century.
The modern champion sires are all great stallions, don’t get me wrong, but collectively they have a big achilles heel in their lack of distance range and that heel is now stamped all over the commercial broodmare population.
Pick up any yearling catalogue and you will see a vast array of yearlings bred in varying criss -crossing arrangements involving these four stallions - Snitzel, Written Tycoon, I Am Invincible, Zoustar - and that is a massive limiting factor in what the future holds for those horses in terms of distance range.
The only way to bring back stamina and the sort of Aussie bred horses that can run a hard tough mile and further is the shuttle stallions, so if you ever want a piece of the $3million Victoria Derby action, be sure to look their way.
